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Short Summary
Main recommendation: Stephen Moore argues the August jobs report was a "blockbuster" and predicts Kevin Warsh will hold off on hikes rather than raise rates. The report showed 162,000 jobs added versus an expected 56,000, with unemployment steady at 4.1%.
Key Points
- August payrolls rose by 162,000, far above the expected 56,000, and unemployment held at 4.1%.
- July's originally reported loss of 23,000 jobs was revised up to a gain of 21,000.
- Over half a million new Americans entered the workforce, and the labor force participation rate of 61.6% is starting to rise again after a decline.
- AI-driven investment in data centers is cited as a major source of construction and equipment jobs, with Loudoun County construction jobs up 63% per a Wall Street Journal analysis.
- Stephen Moore says inflation near 3 to 3.5% is too high but is oil-driven and expected to fall, and he believes Warsh will not raise rates.
Details Worth Noting
- Concrete instructions: The video gives no step-by-step instructions or personal actions for the viewer; its only actionable-adjacent content is the economic outlook, which is a prediction rather than advice to act on.
- Cheryl noted government jobs and leisure and hospitality (62,000 for August after a July loss) moved in the report, with manufacturing adding 16,000 jobs.
- Moore said BLS data quality may be lower than in past years, possibly because fewer Americans are participating in the survey, though he still considers it reliable.
- Cheryl cited the Wall Street Journal finding that construction jobs rose 63% in Loudoun County while Fairfax, Arlington, Prince George's, and Montgomery saw only single-digit increases.
- Cheryl said market expectations tilt toward a possible rate hike in September, while noting Warsh has said the Fed will be data dependent.
Bottom Line The guests see the jobs data and cooling oil-driven inflation as reasons the Fed should hold rates steady, a view they present as an expectation rather than certainty.
