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Graham Stephan - I'm Selling... Where I'm Investing in 2026

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Short Summary

Main recommendation: Keep dollar cost averaging into broad index funds (a US total market fund covering the S&P 500 and midcaps, plus 20% international and 5% emerging markets) and keep buying during dips rather than trying to time the market. The speaker also says he is selling his real estate, keeps about 10 to 15% of his portfolio in a Bitcoin ETF, and holds about 20% in tax-free munis and treasuries for stability.

Key Points

  • Stocks were his best performer of 2025; he treats index investing as a "set it and forget it" approach and says he bought more during the April drop when the S&P 500 fell below 5,000.
  • He argues people in their 20s should welcome market declines because cheaper buy-ins help long-term returns, and says Buffett recommends a similar dollar-cost-averaging strategy for most people.
  • He is exiting real estate for peace of mind, not because it is bad for everyone: he has sold three properties in two years, plans to sell two more, and wants only a primary residence long term.
  • Bitcoin was his worst performer of 2025; he holds it as a small allocation he is willing to lose, citing leverage liquidations and profit-taking as causes of the drop.
  • Precious metals rose sharply, but he owns only a small amount, and he is more optimistic about equities long term while noting silver's gold-to-silver ratio as a possible signal.

Details Worth Noting

  • Concrete instructions: Choose a low-cost broad index fund and dollar cost average into it on a regular schedule, adding more when the market falls and continuing during highs; hold a small Bitcoin ETF allocation (about 10 to 15% of the portfolio) bought the same way; keep roughly 20% in tax-free munis and treasuries yielding about 3.5% to 5.3% for cash and monthly income; if you sell a losing Bitcoin position, wait 30 days before buying back to tax-loss harvest.

  • Silver: he cites industrial demand (solar, EVs, electronics), five consecutive years of supply deficit, and that silver remains below its 1980 peak when adjusted for inflation (about $150 to $200 today by his estimate).

  • Housing: monthly payments have more than doubled in five years, and in most of the US it is cheaper to rent than buy; he expects mortgage rates to decline and prices to soften but not collapse.

  • He cautions that markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent, and that he states the S&P 500 has never produced a negative result over any 20-year period so far, which is his claim, not a verified fact.

Bottom Line

Stick to a simple, consistent index-based plan with a stability buffer, and treat market drops as buying opportunities rather than reasons to panic.

Facts

  1. Graham Stephan states that, so far, the S&P 500 has never produced a negative result over any 20-year period (his claim).

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